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Fed Chairman Powell and Russian Putin hover over the markets


The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and Russia’s ongoing attack on Ukraine remain the dominant factor for stock markets.

On Tuesday morning, futures for the night were slightly lower after Monday’s major indexes fell. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%, while futures on the Dow 30 did not change as of 3:30 a.m. EDT.

The rally closed on Monday, but was under pressure for most of the day after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a conference of the National Association of Business Economics that “the labor market is very strong and inflation is too high.”

Powell said the Fed sees “a clear need to act swiftly to return monetary policy to a more neutral level.”

His report was a clear indication that market expectations of an increase in interest rates by 25 basis points this year may be low and that one or more increases of 50 basis points may be on the horizon.

Mark Kalanovich, global head of quantitative and derivative research at JP Morgan and one of the most bullish on Wall Street, on Monday slightly lowered his target for the S&P 500, “to reflect macro- and geopolitical risks,” though he still expects a rally from current levels. .

Its new target – 4,900, less than 5,050 – is 9.8% compared to Monday’s close.

Oil prices rose sharply again on Monday ahead of this week’s summit in Brussels, which will be attended by President Joe Biden and European heads of government. The most important decision on the table will be whether or not European countries will join the United States as part of their embargo on Russian oil.

Global Brent oil futures jumped more than 7% to $ 115 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate oil futures closed above $ 112.

There seems to be no significant progress in the ceasefire discussions, and the clear end of Vladimir Putin’s deadly war is not in sight.

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Key events of this week
Tuesday: salary from Adobe ( ADBE), Carnival ( CCL, ЦУК), COPEL ELP), GDS GDS), PagSeguro Digital PAGS)

Wednesday: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Summit on a panel on issues that arise for central bankers in the digital world. Salary from Exelon ( EXC), Sintas ( CTAS), Prudential plc PUK), General Mills ( GIS), Trip.com ( TCOM), KB Home KBH)

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Orders for Durable Goods. Revenues from PetroChina ( PTC), China Life LFC), NIO NIO), Darden ( DRI), FactSet ( FDS)

Friday: Univ. Michigan’s consumer sentiment. Revenues from China Petroleum ( SNP), Banco de Chile BCH)

Examining the options market options provided by the Tradier API, we saw significant bullish activity in Apple ( AAPL) and AMD ( AMD) for the last week. After closing at $ 150.62 a week ago, the lowest close since Nov. 15, 2021, Apple shares jumped nearly 10% in the last five trading sessions and closed at $ 165.38 on Monday. Similarly, AMD shares closed at $ 102.25 a week ago – the lowest close since October 5, 2021 – and have since recovered more than 13% and closed at $ 115.92 on Monday.

On the bearish side of stock options we saw strong activity in Amazon ( AMZN) and United Airlines ( UAL). Shares of Amazon tested their lows in January-early March and have since risen sharply, by nearly 19% in two weeks. United shares rose nearly 36% from March 7, 2021 to last Friday, March 18, 2021.

Share price data is provided by IEX Cloud with a 15-minute delay. Chart cost data is provided by TradingView with a 15-minute delay.

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