The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 45.2 in October from 45.7 the previous month, according to data released on Monday.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal predict 47 points.
Readings below 50 indicate contraction territory.
The index is prepared by ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is released to subscribers three minutes before it is released to the public at 9:45 a.m. ET.
The Chicago PMI is the last regional manufacturing index before national factory data for October is released on Tuesday.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the closely watched Institute for Supply Management’s factory index to barely stay above the break-even level of 50 in October.
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