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The inflation forecast for consumers is falling from a record, according to a Fed survey


A worker stores goods at a grocery store in San Francisco, California, May 2, 2022.

David Paul Morris Bloomberg | Getty Images

Consumers have become a little more optimistic about inflation in April, although they still expect to spend much more next year, according to a Federal Reserve poll released Monday.

Inflation expectations next year fell to an average of 6.3 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from a record high in March, as of June 2013. On a three-year basis, expectations rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent, down just 0.3 percentage points from a record high.

The data comes from 12-month inflation in March was 8.5%the highest level since December 1981. April consumer prices are due on Wednesday.

In response to rising prices, the Fed last week raised base interest rates by one and a half percent, making it the biggest increase in 22 years and the second increase in a year.

“We have our work to do and we need to get inflation back,” Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. interview Monday morning.

Americans are still impatient about the high cost of living. Household spending is projected to grow 8% next year, according to a New York Fed survey. That’s 0.3 percentage points more than a month ago, and another series high.

However, there was also some optimism, as consumers’ expectations of higher gas prices fell to 5.2%, up 4.4 percentage points after oil prices fell in April. Respondents also became more secure at their jobs: only 10.8% expected to lose their jobs within the next 12 months, leading to a historic low.

Expectations regarding house prices have not changed, but the expected increase of 6% is still higher than the long-term average.

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