[Note: VFC fiscal year 2022 ended on April 2, 2022]
VF Corporation (NYSE: VFC ), is a marketer of branded apparel and accessories under brands such as Vans, Timberland and The North Face. Shares of the company are down 20% in the last twenty one trading days (one month) and are currently around $28. VFC’s recent fiscal second quarter results weren’t great, but given market expectations, they were good enough. In the second quarter of FY23, the company’s revenue fell 4% year-over-year, slightly missing analysts’ expectations. It’s worth noting that the overall drop in revenue was due to the strong dollar, not an actual drop in units or prices. VFC’s overall sales continued to remain weak due to weakness in the Chinese market, where it has a significant presence. However, VFC reported double-digit sales growth in France, Spain, Italy and Germany this quarter. This is particularly impressive given how weak the European consumer and economic backdrop is currently believed to be. The company’s adjusted gross margin and operating margin fell to 51.5% (-240 basis points y/y) and 12.3% (-440 basis points), respectively. There is no doubt that margin pressure has taken its toll on VF’s operations, but this is an industry-wide problem, not just VF Corporation’s. Additionally, the company’s adjusted earnings met market expectations of 73 cents this quarter. , down 34% y/y.
Now, is VFC stock poised to decline in the short term, or do gains look more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of share price trends over the last ten years, there is a 70% chance that VFC stock will rise over the next month (twenty one trading days). See our analysis VFCA chance for stocks to rise for more details.
Calculation of “Event Probability” and “Raise Chance” using data from the last ten years
[1] Profitability -0.8% or below a five days in 845 cases out of 2,516 (34%); Stocks rose over the next five days in 479 of those 845 cases (57%)
[2] Profit -2.9% or below a a ten-day period in 597 cases out of 2,516 (24%); Stocks rose over the next ten days in 294 of those 597 cases (49%)
[3] Profit is -20% or below a twenty one day in 20 cases out of 2,516 (; Stocks rose over the next twenty-one days in 14 of those 20 cases (70%)
It’s useful to see how his peers stack up. VFC Peers shows how VF Corporation’s stock compares to its peers on important metrics. At Peer Comparisons you will find other useful comparisons for companies in different industries.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, VFC is down 60% this year. Can it fall any more? See how low VFC stock can go by comparing its declines during previous market crashes. Here is a summary of the performance of all stocks during previous market crashes.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Ours quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have consistently beaten the market since late 2016.
| Returns | October 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 year Since the beginning of the year [1] |
2017-22 In total [2] |
| Return of VFC | -6% | -60% | -34% |
| The return of the S&P 500 | 7% | -20% | 71% |
| Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio | 6% | -22% | 208% |
[1] From the beginning of the month and year as of 10/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total return since the end of 2016
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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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