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Daily Markets: Will Halloween Trading Treat Investors?

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Today’s big picture

Shares in the Asia-Pacific region ended today’s session higher, except for China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which fell 0.77% and 1.18%, led by Energy Materials and Health Technology. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.11%, Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries rose 1.17%, Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 1.26% and India’s Sensex closed 1.31% higher. Japan’s Nikkei set the pace, rising 1.78%, led by technology stocks and supported by a weak yen that boosted the number of exporting companies overall.

By mid-day, European stock indexes were mixed, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower open later in the morning.

While the US economic calendar This morning, data from the eurozone showed that inflationary pressures strengthened further in October, likely keeping the European Central Bank on track for further interest rate hikes in the coming months. General economic calendar heats up this week with several October PMI reports; At the end of the week, we have the US employment report for October. The earnings calendar also heats up even more this week, with roughly 1,700 reports over the next five days.

Amidst all this, the Federal Reserve wraps up its next monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. While rates are expected to rise 75 basis points by the end of this meeting, what he says about the potential size of additional rate hikes at meetings in December and February could make or break the current market rally. water. Fueling the stock market rally over the past few weeks is the view that the Fed may continue to raise the Fed rate, but in smaller increments. However, last week’s data showed that the Fed may remain on its aggressive path.

Uncertainty about what lies ahead has once again put the Fed’s policy statement and comments from Fed Spokesman Powell in the crosshairs. What is less uncertain is higher interest rates ahead. Goldman Sachs (GS) Economists now expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5%, higher than previously forecast.

Downloading data

International economy

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.2 in October from 50.1 the previous month, missing market expectations of 50.0 and pointing to the lowest reading since July. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI for China fell to 48.7 in October from 50.6 in September, marking the first contraction in the services sector since May.

The initial value of Eurozone GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2022. This figure was in line with the consensus forecast, but down sharply from 0.7% in Q2 2022. Preliminary figures for Eurozone GDP in Q3 2022 are up 2.1% year-on-year, which is also significantly lower than the same period last year. to the indicator of the 2nd quarter of 2022. 4.3%.

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone continued to hit record high levels and jumped to 10.7% in October from 9.9% in September. Energy prices continued to have the biggest impact (up 41.9% versus 40.7% in September), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (up 13.1% versus 11.8%). Consumer prices rose 1.5% month-on-month in October, the fastest increase in seven months.

The European Union is asking Russia to reconsider its decision over the weekend to withdraw from the UN-brokered Black Sea grain agreement, effectively cutting supplies from Ukraine, one of the world’s biggest grain exporters.

Domestic economy

October’s Chicago PMI will be reported at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the headline number is expected to jump to 47 from 45.7 the previous month. The Dallas Fed manufacturing business index for October will be released shortly after at 10am ET and is not expected to change significantly from September’s reading of -17.2.

Markets

Markets shrugged off Tech earnings on Thursday as all major benchmarks had a strong day to close the week. The Russell 2000 rose 2.25%, the S&P 500 rose 2.46%, the Dow rose 2.59% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.87%. All sectors were positive, but on a relative basis consumer discretionary (0.09%) and energy (0.35%) lagged behind as almost all other sectors gained well over 2% and technology bounced back more than 4%. Here’s how the key market indicators stack up since the start of the year:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9.57%
  • S&P 500: -18.15%
  • Nasdaq Composite: -29.04%
  • Russell 2000: -17.74%
  • Bitcoin (BTC-USD): -55.58%
  • Ether (ETH-USD): -57.82%

Stocks to watch

Before trading for US-listed stocks, Global Payments (GPN), ON Semiconductor (ON), and XPO Logistics (XPO) will be among the companies reporting their quarterly results.

Shares of Macau casino operators, incl Wynn Resorts (WYNN)are under pressure today after the Macau government re-introduced some draconian measures to combat COVID last weekend, including closing a major casino resort.

in Shanghai Disney (DIS) Earlier today, the resort suspended operations in accordance with COVID-19 prevention measures, and all visitors at the time of the announcement were ordered to remain in the park until they tested negative for the virus.

Reports to propose production Apple (AAPL) can fall by as much as 30%. Foxconn (FXCOF) main Zhengzhou plant in central China amid new covid restrictions. Foxconn is looking to ramp up production at other factories to make up for the expected shortfall.

Emerson Electric (EMR) is selling a controlling interest in its climate technology business, which sells compressors and other HVAC products and services used in commercial and residential heating, cooling, and cold storage. Blackstone (BX).

Bloomberg reports Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is closing in on a deal to acquire Birmingham, England-based diagnostics firm Binding Site for more than £2 billion ($2.3 billion) from private equity fund Nordic Capital.

After today’s market close

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC), Addus HomeCare (ADUS), American Water Works (AWK), Harmonic (HLIT), Heartland Financial (HTLF), Hologic (HOLX), IMAX (IMAX), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI ) ), Rambus ( RMBS ) and Trex ( TREX ) are expected to be among a few dozen companies to report quarterly results after shares end trading today. Those who want to know which companies are reporting and when they report will move on Nasdaq earnings calendar.

On the horizon

Tuesday, November 1

  • Japan: Au Jibun Manufacturing Bank PMI – October
  • China: Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI – October
  • UK: S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI – October
  • US: S&P Global Final US Manufacturing PMI – October
  • USA: construction costs – September
  • US: ISM Manufacturing Index – October
  • USA: JOLTS Jobs Report – September

Wednesday, November 2

  • Eurozone: S&P Global Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – October
  • US: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications
  • US: ADP Employment Change Report – October
  • US: EIA weekly crude oil inventories
  • US: FOMC rate decision

November 3, Thursday

  • China: Caixin China General Services PMI – October
  • S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI – October
  • UK: Bank of England interest rate decision
  • US: Challenger job cuts report – October
  • US: Weekly initial and permanent jobless claims
  • US: Performance – Q3 2022
  • USA: S&P Global Final US Services PMI – October
  • USA: factory orders – September
  • USA: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – October
  • US: EIA weekly natural gas inventories

Friday, November 4

  • Japan: Au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI – October
  • Eurozone: S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI
  • Eurozone: producer price index – September
  • US: Employment Report – October

Thought for the day

“The main thing is that the main thing is the main thing.” ~ Stephen Covey

Disclosure of information

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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