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Florida likely to Potential Tropical Cycle One

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The National Hurricane Center started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. That means it is not a depression or storm, but has the potential to be one at landfall. The NHC gives it that name, so that it can start issuing advisories, watches or warnings. Tropical storm warnings are now posted for Florida Keys, and all of South Florida including Miami. The big concern is for heavy rain. 4-8-12″ of rain is possible. There is the potential for a 1-3 foot storm surge. Potential tropical cyclone one is forecast to make landfall as a Tropical Storm. The name will be Alex. Max winds at landfall are forecast to be around 45 mph.Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University updated the Hurricane Season Forecast adding one more storm, one more hurricane and one more major hurricane. The forecast now calls for 20 named storms, 10 become hurricanes and 5 of those become major hurricanes. The reasoning for the increase is the lack of an El Nino which causes strong upper level winds that can prevent storms from developing. Klotzbach also points out that the East Subtropical Atlantic waters are warmer than normal along with the Mid-Latitude Atlantic.The system is not a threat to Louisiana or Mississippi. Notice the forecast track is well to our South. Keep in mind the cone only shows where the center is forecast to move two out of three times. Impacts happen well outside of the cone. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is dealing with wind shear and dry air especially over the North Gulf. This is good for our area.Satellite imagery on Friday morning show the storm has a little better defined circulation, but overall it’s still poorly organized. Hurricane Agatha was the first named storm of the eastern Pacific’s season. It made landfall in southern Mexico near Puerto Angel around 4pm Monday as a Cat 2 with sustained winds of 105 mph. It dumped heavy rain in Mexico, but the mountainous terrain tore it apart.The National Hurricane Center says there is the potential for this disturbance to become a Tropical Storm later today. The name will be Alex. Alex is forecast to move towards lower Florida Peninsula by Saturday afternoon. Max winds forecast are 45 mph. It is forecast to move off the East Coast of Florida late Saturday and into the Atlantic where it may get a little stronger.The Spaghetti Models are all grouped over South Florida. That shows confidence in where the system is going.Again, this system will not threaten the Northern Gulf, including Mississippi and Louisiana. Dry air and steering currents are protecting us. However, it’s always good to have a tropical storm and hurricane plan in place this time of year, just in case a tropical threat does develop. Our hurricane special can now be seen online.Get Ready Now: WDSU Hurricane SpecialStay with WDSU for the latest on the Tropics.

The National Hurricane Center started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. That means it is not a depression or storm, but has the potential to be one at landfall. The NHC gives it that name, so that it can start issuing advisories, watches or warnings.

Tropical storm warnings are now posted for Florida Keys, and all of South Florida including Miami. The big concern is for heavy rain. 4-8-12″ of rain is possible. There is the potential for a 1-3 foot storm surge. Potential tropical cyclone one is forecast to make landfall as a Tropical Storm. The name will be Alex. Max winds at landfall are forecast to be around 45 mph.

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Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University updated the Hurricane Season Forecast adding one more storm, one more hurricane and one more major hurricane. The forecast now calls for 20 named storms, 10 become hurricanes and 5 of those become major hurricanes. The reasoning for the increase is the lack of an El Nino which causes strong upper level winds that can prevent storms from developing. Klotzbach also points out that the East Subtropical Atlantic waters are warmer than normal along with the Mid-Latitude Atlantic.

klotzback hurricane season forecast

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Klotzback hurricane season forecast
Hurricane Tracker

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Latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center

The system is not a threat to Louisiana or Mississippi. Notice the forecast track is well to our South. Keep in mind the cone only shows where the center is forecast to move two out of three times. Impacts happen well outside of the cone. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is dealing with wind shear and dry air especially over the North Gulf. This is good for our area.

tropics outlook

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Models take the system to Florida

Satellite imagery on Friday morning show the storm has a little better defined circulation, but overall it’s still poorly organized.

2022 storm names

Hurricane Agatha was the first named storm of the eastern Pacific’s season. It made landfall in southern Mexico near Puerto Angel around 4pm Monday as a Cat 2 with sustained winds of 105 mph. It dumped heavy rain in Mexico, but the mountainous terrain tore it apart.

Hurricane Sam has formed in the Atlantic

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The remnants of what was Hurricane Agatha

The National Hurricane Center says there is the potential for this disturbance to become a Tropical Storm later today. The name will be Alex. Alex is forecast to move towards lower Florida Peninsula by Saturday afternoon. Max winds forecast are 45 mph. It is forecast to move off the East Coast of Florida late Saturday and into the Atlantic where it may get a little stronger.

gfs forecast friday afternoon

gfs forecast saturday morning

The Spaghetti Models are all grouped over South Florida. That shows confidence in where the system is going.

Again, this system will not threaten the Northern Gulf, including Mississippi and Louisiana. Dry air and steering currents are protecting us. However, it’s always good to have a tropical storm and hurricane plan in place this time of year, just in case a tropical threat does develop.

Our hurricane special can now be seen online.

Get Ready Now: WDSU Hurricane Special

Stay with WDSU for the latest on the Tropics.



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