Shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL ) is up 34% over the past month (twenty-one trading days), significantly better than the S&P 500, which is up 5.7% over the period. Also, if you look at the changes over the past week and ten days, the stock has returned 14% and 26%, in both cases significantly better than the broader markets. Last week, United Airlines reported Q3 2022 revenue of about $12.9 billion, up significantly from $7.75 billion in Q3 2021, driven primarily by a 5% jump in passenger revenue. billions of dollars. Despite a more than doubling of jet fuel costs, the company managed to control other operating costs, with operating income rising from $1.04 billion to $1.46 billion during the period. Thanks to a slight reduction in the effective tax rate, the firm’s net income jumped to $2.88 per share, up from $1.46 in 3Q2021.
Now, will UAL stock continue its strong run, or can we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a minuscule 13% chance that UAL stock will rise over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of the stock price trends over the last ten years. See our analysis below UAL shares are likely to rise. For more information on the company’s historical profitability and comparison with peers, see United Airlines Holdings (UAL) stock performance..
Twenty-one days: UAL 34%, compared to the S&P500’s 5.7%; Outperformed the market
(1% chance of event; 13% chance of growth over the next 21 days)
- UAL stock jumped 34% over the past twenty-one trading days (one month), versus the broader market (S&P500) up 5.7%
- A change of 34% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 1% event that has occurred 30 times out of 2,516 over the last 10 years
- Of these 30 cases, the stock moved positively over the next twenty-one trading days in only 4 cases
- This indicates a 13% chance of the stock rising over the next twenty one trading days
Ten days: UAL 26%, vs S&P500 7.6%; Outperformed the market
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- UAL stock up 26% over the past ten trading days (two weeks), versus the broader market (S&P500) up 7.6%
- A change of 26% and over ten trading days is a
- Of these 18 cases, the stock saw a positive move over the next ten trading days in 9 cases
- This indicates a 50% chance of the stock going up over the next ten trading days
Five days: UAL 14%, vs. S&P500 3.7%; Outperformed the market
(3% chance of event; 40% chance of growth over the next five days)
- UAL stock scored 14% for the five-day trading period ending 10/25/2022, compared with the broader market (S&P500), which rose 3.7% over the period.
- A change of 14% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% event that has occurred 65 times out of 2,516 over the last 10 years
- Out of these 65 cases, in 26 cases, the stock saw a positive movement during the next five trading days
- This indicates a There is a 40% chance that the stock will rise over the next five trading days
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| Returns | October 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 year Since the beginning of the year [1] |
2017-22 In total [2] |
| Return of UAL | 31% | -3% | -42% |
| The return of the S&P 500 | 8% | -19% | 72% |
| Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio | 6% | -22% | 209% |
[1] From the beginning of the month and year as of 10/26/2022
[2] Cumulative total return since the end of 2016
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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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