The is the biggest the decision of Sir Geoffrey Donaldson’s career is still on the horizon. But it is coming. If and when that happens, his choice could get in the way The Good Friday Agreementthe deal was struck in 1998 to end 30 years of bloody sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland.
Sir Geoffrey is the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest pro-British party in the province. He pulled DUP with government with separation of powers in February, as a sign of protest against art Northern Ireland Protocol, part of the Brexit divorce agreement that left Ireland’s land border open by creating a new trade border in the Irish Sea. Unionists hate the red tape that makes it easier to buy ham or trees in Bratislava than in Birmingham. Their deeper concern is that Northern Ireland is being pushed further away from the UK and closer to the Republic of Ireland.
Inclusivity is at the heart of Stormont, the home of devolved administration. If any of the largest unionist or the largest nationalist parties leave, the whole system grinds to a halt. Nationalist party Sinn Féin, which favors reunification with Ireland and continues to defend IRA atrocities, became the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time. But without DUPinvolved, nothing can happen. The government has not been working in the province for nine months; New elections, which may take place in December, are unlikely to break the deadlock.
Almost everyone agrees that the protocol needs an overhaul. The DUPThe terms of return to the government will be fulfilled only if the sea border goes and other aspects of the deal, such as EU courts supervision EU laws in Northern Ireland, are being removed. Such a surrender from the side EU it is almost unthinkable. But the bloc has already agreed to soften the application of the protocol and has indicated possibilities for further concessions. As the economic damage caused by Brexit becomes more apparent, the pressure on the British government to forge a more constructive relationship with EU is also growing. Negotiations between the parties resumed in September. Even if the transaction does not take place under Rishi Sunakof a new Tory prime minister, a Labor government will no doubt be more conciliatory.
It is at this point, when negotiators in Brussels and London agree on a deal that improves the protocol but does not tear it up, that Sir Geoffrey will be forced to make a major decision. Abandoning the deal would mean no discernible path to government delegation for a long period, perhaps a decade or more. This would destroy one of the foundations of the Good Friday Agreement. Many of the pragmatic voters who now hold the constitutional balance of power may turn to Irish unity. “The DUP he seems ready to turn this place into an ungovernable and ungovernable mess,” Matthew O’Toole, leader of the Social Democratic Labor Party, a moderate nationalist party, said on October 27. “It’s a tragedy for everyone who lives here, but it’s a huge strategic mistake for the unions.”
Recent history is telling DUP likely to satisfy his core electorate. Support for DUPAfter the elections in May, the hard line among loyal trade union voters intensified. Alex Kane, a columnist who has known Sir Geoffrey for decades, says if he returns to government with much of the protocol in place, it will create a “huge and destabilizing rift” between the party and some of the “increasingly militant” unionists. He believes that Sir Geoffrey may step down before that happens.
John Tonge, co-author of a nonfiction book exploring modernity DUP, expects it to bend. “The compromise would see the sale of a deal that involves minor checks on goods moving between the UK and Northern Ireland only, but with most other aspects of the protocol in place,” says Professor Tonge. “It’s going to be hard to sell internally DUP leader, but he will present it as a triumph for his party in defense of integrity Great Britain internal market, which will be free from prom EU intervention”.
Once a disciple of Enoch Powell, the nationalist British politician, Sir Geoffrey has become an establishment figure. He was knighted in 2016, loves his seat in Westminster and flies around the world to speak at peace conferences about ending the violence in Northern Ireland. Declassified government files from the time of the Good Friday Agreement show that civil servants privately considered it “the most progressive”. They believed that he was one of the most liberal trade unionists, but strengthened his position for the vote. This tension remains. How this is resolved can have important consequences.■
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